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18 Month Forecast of Exchange Rates

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The Price Will Be Up

In eighteen months, the EUR/USD will be trading at 2.1000. Okay, okay, I admit it. I'm being sarcastic. Nobody knows where the price will be in 18 months. Furthermore, if anyone says they know, the are either, crazy, a liar, or God. Don't count on any supernatural forex forecasts. So if someone is claiming to know where prices will be they are lying (or crazy).

The best anyone can do is guess. And time makes the guess less accurate.

Further Away--Less Accurate

Think about it. Tell me what you'll in five minutes from now. With almost 100% accuracy you'll be able to tell me. Now tell me what you will be doing a year and a half from now. You can guess. If you get it right, it will be more by luck than anything else.

You see, that's my point. The further out the prediction the less accuracy you're going to have. But that's not all bad. You don't need to know what will happen to a currency pair months from now to make money. Furthermore, you don't need to know what will happen with the currency pair that you are currently in a trade with. All you need to know is that you entered after a setup that has the odds in your favor.

But on any particular trade, you have no idea what will happen (and the great thing is, you don't need to).

Support and Resistance

Using support and resistance is your best bet at creating a long-term forecast. See the picture.

And when it definitely busts through one or the other, it will probably move for a good piece in that direction.

In summary, you don't need forecasts to make money. Second, if you still want a forecast, you're best bet is to make one yourself by drawing in support and resistance lines on a chart.